FROM: http://machorhino.com/?p=15968
Week 1 of the 2010 college football season opens tonight! It’s time for my picks for the games involving Macho Rhino’s Top 25 teams. This season I will make my picks on Thursday or prior to the start of the first game involving a Macho Rhino Top 25 team. I will link to “experts” and see how my picks do against there’s each week also.
1. Alabama vs. San Jose State – Even without the injured, returning Heisman winner Mark Ingram, the defending champs should roll in their opener. The starters will get to pad their stats some before being able to watch from the sideline in the fourth quarter.Alabama 55, San Jose State 3
2. Boise State vs. 8. Virginia Tech – This one is the big one. The game everyone will be watching Monday night as the Broncos travel to Washington D.C. to take on the Hokies. If the Broncos can win it sets up a run towards the BCS and hopefully a shot at the national championship, a loss is a crushing defeat. Boise won’t have seen a runner like Ryan Williams but Kellen Moore will guide their offense to a victory. Boise State 28, Virginia Tech 24
3. Ohio State vs. Marshall – Terrelle Pryor should kick off his Heisman campaign with a huge game. I’d look for over 300 yards total offense from him as the Buckeyes win easily. Ohio State 34, Marshall 7
4. Miami vs. Florida A&M – Jacory Harris and the Canes have big expectations for the first time in years and should put up big numbers in this one. The Canes will get a lead and put the subs in so they don’t risk injury heading in to next week’s huge game at Ohio State. Miami 49, Florida A&M 7
5. Texas at Rice – Rice is no match for the Longhorns. Luckily for Rice, the rest of the season gets easier but they open with an ugly loss. Texas 55, Rice 6
6. Florida vs. Miami (OH) – Last year’s seniors who were some of the most successful in college football history are gone leaving huge shoes to fill at several positions for the Gators. Not much to worry about though as Urban Meyer has a roster stocked with supreme talent. Florida 42, Miami (OH) 13
7. Iowa vs. Eastern Illinois – While the Hawkeyes have struggled in openers in the past, this one shouldn’t be much of a problem. Their defense should control a good FCS team and put the offense in good position for several scoring drives. Iowa 38, Eastern Illinois 10
9. TCU vs. 16. Oregon State – This is the second biggest game of the weekend as BCS crasher TCU looks to defeat one of the favorites to win the Pac-10 this season. TCU returns several starters from a very good team last year that went 12-1. Oregon State brings back Jacquizz Rodgers, one of the best runners in the country. This one takes place at Cowboys Stadium so while it’s technically a neutral site game, the crowd should be overwhelmingly behind the Horned Frogs. Andy Dalton will make plays to get his team a tough victory. TCU 31, Oregon State 28
10. Wisconsin at UNLV – Wisconsin opens up on the road in Vegas against an overmatched Runnin’ Rebels. John Clay runs wild in this game as the Badgers O-line simply dominates. Wisconsin 35, UNLV 10
11. Oregon vs. New Mexico – Oregon will break in a new QB but should have no trouble against the Lobos. LaMichael James has a huge game and carries them to an easy W to start the year in Eugene. Oregon 45, New Mexico 6
12. Nebraska vs. Western Kentucky – The Huskers will boast one of the country’s best defenses again this year but the questions are on offense. Can they get consistent play at QB to challenge not just for the Big XII title but make them national title contenders? Western Kentucky isn’t the type of team to use as a measuring stick. Nebraska 38, Western Kentucky 3
13. Auburn vs. Arkansas State – Auburn debuts new QB and Florida transfer Cam Newton. He’s a dynamic run/pass threat who should thrive in the spread offense at Auburn. There might be some kinks to work out this game which is the only Arkansas State has. Auburn 41, Arkansas State 13
14. Oklahoma vs. Utah State – Utah State is trending upward but they’re way out of their league in this one. The Sooners are out to prove last year was a fluke and should dominate this game. Oklahoma 38, Utah State 7
15. Pittsburgh at Utah – Pitt travels across the country for a dangerous opener against a good Utes team. Pitt comes prepared with Dion Lewis and a great offensive attack. It’s not going to be an easy place to have a QB making his first start but Lewis should find enough holes to let Pitt leave with a win. Pittsburgh 28, Utah 27
17. Arkansas vs. Tennessee Tech – This one should get ugly fast. The Razorbacks will unleash Ryan Mallett and crew against a FCS team that will be lucky to stay within 50. Arkansas 63, Tennessee Tech 6
18. Florida State vs. Samford – Jimbo Fisher starts his tenure at the helm of Florida State against the school Bobby Bowden began his coaching career with. Mickey Andrews retired as defensive coordinator and Mark Stoops has taken over that role now. Samford is in this for the paycheck and a big loss. Christian Ponder throws four touchdowns. Florida State 41, Samford 3
19. LSU vs. 21. North Carolina – UNC has had to deal with controversy in the offseason regarding player eligibility while Les Miles has had to hear he might be out after this season if they don’t win more than they did last year. Miles is a great bowl coach and I think will treat this game in Atlanta as such and find a way for his team to pull it out. With suspensions looming for UNC, I can’t see them being 100% focused on this game and LSU will be. LSU 16, North Carolina 10
20. West Virginia vs. Coastal Carolina – The Chanticleers will be greatly overmatched by the speed of West Virginia. Look for Noel Devine to rack up 150 yard before allowing the backups to see some action. West Virginia 56, Coastal Carolina 7
22. Penn State vs. Youngstown State – Evan Royster will run wild in this one as the Nittany Lions beat up one a FCS team. Youngstown needs to just try to get a touchdown which there were unable to do in two games against FBS teams last year. Penn State 42, Youngstown State 6
23. Washington at BYU- Jake Locker has to know how big of a game this is for his Huskies. He’s the multi-talented QB leading Washington to take on the Cougars. BYU will be replacing Max Hall and has had success recently against the Pac-10. This game becomes a back and forth affair and I’m going to go with Locker to make a play in the fourth that sets up the win. Washington 31, BYU 30
24. Georgia Tech vs. South Carolina State – Another mismatched FCS team going for the payday this Saturday. The triple option is hard enough to defense when you have top shelf athletes. Tech will run all over their outmatched competition. Georgia Tech 56, South Carolina State 3
25. Navy at Maryland – The Midshipmen will run all over Maryland in this one and should cruise to a win. Not the start Coach Fridge is looking for this year. Navy 31, Maryland 10
Each week I’ll also make three bonus selections of intriguing games outside of our top 25.
Missouri vs. Illinois – The last chapter of this rivalry for the foreseeable future ends in St. Louis this Saturday. Missouri had the shocking loss of running back Derrick Washington to suspension last week while Illinois is trying to improve on a hugely disappointing season last year. The Tigers should be fine in this one without Washington, they’re a pass first team and as long as Blaine Gabbert stays healthy for four quarters of this one, he should dissect the Illini defense like he did last year. Illinois is starting what’s likely Ron Zook’s last year and they’ve got holes to fill at many positions from last year’s team. While the new blood may improve them, it’s unlikely to make a huge jump from last year. Missouri 34, Illinois 14
Connecticut at Michigan – This fall UConn has high hopes. They’ve got the schedule and team they think can challenge for the Big East Championship. Michigan desperately needs to win this game. A loss will be a blow to Rich Rodriguez and keep the talk of his dismissal as coach at the forefront for at least another week. I think Michigan has eight win potential this year as Rodriguez has players who understand his system now and some playmakers who can execute it. This is a game that will motivate both teams as they know a win will be a confidence boost. I think it ends up being a back and forth game and I’ve just got a feeling the Wolverines will find a way to win at home. Michigan 27, Connecticut 24
Northwestern at Vanderbilt – Bobbie Caldwell gets his first shot and leading the Commodores on the sideline against the visiting Wildcats. He’s only had a little over a month to get his message across to the team since taking over. Pat Fitzgerald thinks his Wildcats are ready for a big season, hoping they can challenge the top tier of teams in the Big Ten. Northwestern showed they could play with the SEC last year in taking Auburn to overtime in their bowl game. They should have no problem with Vandy. Northwestern 28, Vanderbilt 17
Read more Alabama Crimson Tide Football news on BleacherReport.com
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This summer was dominated by expansion talk. But now that September is here, discussion will again turn to the National Championship hunt.
Does Boise State have a shot? Do they even deserve one? Will Alabama and Florida get knocked out by the tough SEC competition? Could a mid-major appear in the Rose Bowl?
For those of you that remember last year's series, this year will examine various playoff proposals and their implementation given the week-to-week BCS and conference standings.
Conference and division leaders will be determined by the least number of losses in conference or by BCS rank if head-to-head is insufficient. Note: A game between two teams which has not yet been played is not counted as a loss for either team.
Please comment on (1) which proposal you think is the best, (2) the pros and cons of certain proposals, and (3) how different proposals compare to each other.
This is the current BCS model. The top two teams playoff in the National Championship, while BCS champions and at-large teams fill four other bowl games.
No. 1 Alabama - No. 2 Ohio State (National Championship)
No. 3 Florida - No. 7 Oklahoma (Sugar Bowl)
No. 4 Texas - No. 17 Pittsburgh (Fiesta Bowl)
No. 5 Boise State - No. 9 Oregon (Rose Bowl)
No. 8 Virginia Tech - No. 11 Iowa (Orange Bowl)
Keeps the BCS model and adds two additional play-in games. Here is how the 10 BCS teams are chosen.
No. 1 Alabama - No. 3 Florida (SEC Championship Game)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten Champion)
No. 4 Texas - No. 10 Nebraska (Big 12 Championship Game)
No. 5 Boise State (Mid-Major Champion)
*No. 6 TCU - No. 12 Miami (BCS Play-In Game 1)
*No. 7 Oklahoma - No. 11 Iowa (BCS Play-In Game 2)
No. 8 Virginia Tech - No. 21 Florida State (ACC Championship Game)
No. 9 Oregon (Pac-10 Champion)
No. 17 Pittsburgh (Big East Champion)
The 10th BCS spot goes to the highest ranked team, after these games, that is not yet in a BCS bowl (probably the SEC Championship loser).
Takes the idea of nationwide play-in games and creates one great game between two National Title hopefuls. The Top two teams remaining still play in the National Championship Game.
No. 1 Alabama - No. 3 Florida (SEC Championship Game)
*No. 2 Ohio State - No. 5 Boise State (BCS Play-In Game)
No. 4 Texas - No. 10 Nebraska (Big 12 Championship Game)
This is the first true playoff. It matches conference champions that finished in the Top five in two BCS bowl semifinals. A fifth BCS bowl is also added.
No. 1 Alabama - No. 5 Boise State (Sugar Bowl)
No. 2 Ohio State - No. 4 Texas (Rose Bowl)
This couples Proposals C and D. Two border-line playoff teams play-off in December and the top four champions go into the semifinals.
No. 1 Alabama - No. 3 Florida (SEC Championship Game)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten Champion)
No. 4 Texas - No. 10 Nebraska (Big 12 Championship Game)
*No. 5 Boise State - No. 6 TCU (BCS Play-In Game)
Takes the Mountain West proposal and adds some selection flexibility for the non-playoff BCS bowl.
No. 1 Alabama - No. 6 TCU (Sugar Bowl)
No. 2 Ohio State - No. 9 Oregon (Rose Bowl)
No. 4 Texas - No. 5 Boise St (Fiesta Bowl)
No. 8 Va Tech - No. 3 Florida (Orange Bowl)
*No. 17 Pittsburgh - No. 7 Oklahoma (fifth BCS Bowl)
Replaces Conference Championship Games with regional tournaments at the beginning of December. All 11 Conference Champions Qualify.
West Bracket - winner to Rose Bowl
Central Michigan @ No. 1 Boise State
No. 3 Oregon @ No. 2 TCU
South Bracket - winner to Sugar Bowl
Houston @ No. 1 Texas
No. 3 Nebraska @ No. 2 Oklahoma
East Bracket - winner to Sugar Bowl
M Tenn St @ No. 1 Alabama
No. 2 Florida @ No. 3 Pittsburgh
North Bracket - winner to Rose Bowl
Miami @ No. 1 Ohio State
No. 3 Iowa @ No. 2 Virginia Tech
Takes Proposal G and allows cross-regional games.
No. 1 Alabama - M Tenn St
No. 2 Ohio State - Houston
No. 3 Florida - Central Michigan
No. 4 Texas - No. 17 Pittsburgh
No. 5 Boise St - No. 12 Miami
No. 6 TCU - No. 11 Iowa
No. 7 Oklahoma - No. 10 Nebraska
No. 8 Virginia Tech - No. 9 Oregon
What do you think? What are your playoff ideas?
Read more Alabama Crimson Tide Football news on BleacherReport.com
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The 2009 season is over. The accolades for the National Championship run are complete.
There was an additional small reward over the summer with the release of a movie that center staged Alabama's Football program and their new favorite citizen, Nick Saban.
But if you paid any attention to the ESPN series that put Coach Saban front and center of the educational process that takes place on the practice field, then you know that despite their young age, the talented players on defense for Alabama will be taught what they need to succeed.
Plain and simple, the time is ready to get it on!
Attrition occurs every year during the fall camp. New talent percolates to the forefront and players who were patient, worked hard as a scout team player, ate the right things, and camped in the weight room during the off-season have seen the extra effort pay off.
For players like DeQuan Menzie, Damien Square, Dont'a Hightower, and a few others coming off critical injuries, it's time to enjoy the success of rehabilitation.
It's time to feel the peacefulness that comes from enduring the extremes on the emotional roller coaster. Highs and lows are put aside for the even tempo of a life back to normal and the confidence that comes from knowing that your coach has listed you as a starter.
No real surprises in the starting lineup and depth chart for the Crimson Tide.
What is amazing is that at nearly every position, this coaching staff has developed a depth of talent that reaches three or four men at every position. This is the first year in two decades that any coach can claim that type of success with the roster.
And what Saban said about "talent," he was quick to remind others of the meaning. He stated: "Talent is what you are capable of doing, your motivation is what you do (compels you to take action), and your attitude reflects how you do it."
He went on to say, "Regardless of talent, that's just part of the equation, what a persons motivation and commitment is, and what their attitude is at the time the demands are made on them will determine more how they perform on a consistent basis."
He added: "And that won't be determined by one game. It's a long season, a tough mountain to climb, and that is what we have to look forward to in this season."
Mark Ingram and Wesley Neighbors are out for this season opener. There is still no decision on the role for Marcell Dareus in the opener, but plan B is already being put into place if there is no answer by game time.
The NCAA is stalled on their decision for Marcell Dareus and many other players awaiting their review and outcome of the "agent-gate" episode that occurred in South Florida last summer. Not just Dareus, but many other athletes around the Southeast and East Coast await the outcome of that investigation.
Regarding players like Mark Ingram, who show exemplary character and integrity, Saban was quick to say, "Mark had a great camp, and because of his character, he has set out a great example for our younger players to observe in terms of his work ethic, his demeanor and how he manages his situations, striving to be better."
Saban added, "What's really unfortunate is that Mark, near the end of camp, was playing better than he had played all of last year and I am sure that he will get back to that level of competition and performance when his recovery is complete and we get him back on the field."
On the impact for coaches, Saban said of Ingram, "It sure makes it a whole lot easier when you have good players that are good guys. It makes a big difference for the team."
DeQuan Menzie is not in the type of condition that others are on the team because of the way he had to participate in rehabilitation during the spring and fall.
He was not able to run freely until the last two or three week. Saban added, "He is a very good special teams player but we won't play him on special team because of his current conditioning. We expect to see progress as the season moves forward."
On William Vlachos, Saban is impressed with his intelligence and his willingness to compete on every play.
Saban commented, "He is smart, He is strong and plays with really good leverage. He makes all the line calls, prepares for his assignments every week, he is confident and makes good adjustments."
Saban couldn't say enough, "He missed time in the spring because of his foot injury and did not skip a beat when he came back. His knowledge, strength, his power, in all those areas, he has gotten a little bit better. You are talking about a guy who has pride in performance, he tries to do everything he does the right way."
"When you talk about talent motivation and attitude, there is no question about this guy's motivation and attitude and how he goes about doing what he does and how he gets the result that he gets."
On a follow up question from the media on how he influences the line, Saban went on to talk of Vlachos but included accolades for Barrett Jones, "William and Barrett can pull from a good fund of game knowledge and experience. They make it a lot easier for the other guys to play."
Saban went on to recognize their contributions to the offensive line play, "I know that Barrett makes it easier for the right tackle and William makes it a lot better for the entire left side of our line. When it's a difficult preparation because you don't know what you're gonna see (in the case of San Jose State) these guys can read the defenses and recognize those things and make game time adjustments. That is when it's probably most important."
In the last press conference of the year, Saban seemed confident in his team.
It's a long way 'til the first week in December, but his team is prepared and they are ready to take the field. Mark Ingram and Wes Neighbors will be on the sidelines supporting their teammates.
It's leadership like that, says Saban, that will make a difference for this team during the next 14 weeks.
Read more Alabama Crimson Tide Football news on BleacherReport.com
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Finally, the most wonderful time of the year has arrived. No, it’s not Christmas or your birthday, its college football season!
As the season draws down to only hours before the first kickoff on Thursday, there are tons of questions out there regarding top tier programs in the nation.
Will the Crimson Tide repeat as National Champions?
How will sanctions affect USC and other teams that had the NCAA investigate their respective programs over the summer?
Will there by any more musical chairs of conference expansion after a summer of address changes for many teams after the Big Ten got the ball rolling at the end of last season?
All those questions and surely more will be answered as the college football season will start tomorrow and kick into full gear this Saturday.
Enjoy SEC football fans and be sure if I picked your team to win on Opening Week.
Thursday, Sept. 2 7:30 p.m.
Southern Miss @ South Carolina
PREDICTION: South Carolina 35-24
Saturday, Sept. 4 12:00p.m.
Miami (OH) @ No. 4 Florida
PREDICTION: Florida 63-7
12:21 p.m. Louisiana-Lafayette @ No. 23 Georgia
PREDICTION: Georgia 49-3
3:30 p.m. Kentucky @ Louisville
PREDICTION: Kentucky 38-10
3:30 p.m. Jacksonville State @ Mississippi
PREDICTION: Ole Miss 28-7
6:00 p.m. Tennessee-Martin @ Tennessee
PREDICTION: Tennessee 52-0
7:00 p.m. Memphis @ Mississippi State
PREDICTION: Mississippi State 31-17
7:00 p.m. Arkansas State @ No. 22 Auburn
PREDICTION: Auburn 55-3
7:00 p.m. Tennessee Tech @ No. 17 Arkansas
PREDICTION: Arkansas 59-0
7:00 p.m. San Jose State @ No. 1 Alabama
PREDICTION: Alabama 63-7
7:30 p.m. Northwestern @ Vanderbilt
PREDICTION: Northwestern 28-20
8:00 p.m. No. 21 LSU vs. No. 18 North Carolina
PREDICTION: North Carolina 38-31
Read more Alabama Crimson Tide Football news on BleacherReport.com
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Mark Ingram lit a bit of a scare under Alabama fans when he injured his knee, which required arthroscopic surgery. My full faith is in Trent Richardson's ability to carry the load for Alabama, but once Mark Ingram is ready to go he will be the starter.
I have seen many people writing off Mark Ingram Jr's injury as the beginning of the Trent Richardson era. This simply will not be the case and there is one simple reason that is readily apparent to all.
If one examines the process by which Nick Saban builds a revolving door of National Championship contenders, it is by consistently attracting top talent.
When grade "A" recruits come through the door, they do so because they trust in one thing, and one thing alone, and that is that they have found the system where they will most likely succeed.
The mental thought process of going through colleges to find the best choice involves a lot of thoughts. Locations, coaching staffs, personal commitments, reputations of your position from the school, playing time, academic programs that meet my needs, or what school is going to put me in the best spotlight for the NFL are all things that go through an uncommitted recruit's head.
Right now, if time is on your side, the answer to the latter is Alabama for any RB. To make the point of the article, I will focus on one question in particular. "Where will I get playing time?" This is a tricky one.
By not reinstating Mark Ingram as the Tide's starting running back, this is sending a serious negative message to the Trent Richardsons, Malcolm Browns, and Isaiah Crowells of the future. The reason is not because it's an unacceptable coaching move, it's not because in reality Richardson probably won't overshadow Ingram, it has nothing to do with that.
Nick Sabans program's sales pitch to four and five star recruits is that those recruits that have preceded you are playing now. They are living in the same system that you are. They, as developed players, will keep some of the scouting spotlight here, waiting for your turn to step into it.
Every once in a while, you have a positional upset to this rule, like we did in our defensive secondary last year.
Most saw it coming, and look at how many top players jumped on it? Dre Kirkpatrick, John Fulton, and DeMarcus Milliner were all some of the top DB's in the nation in their respective recruiting class. These guys intelligently jump all over a chance to be a two to four year starter, at will, in this kind of program.
I'm sure some of you caught on that I mentioned Texas Longhorn commit Malcolm Brown. Why? Because even at his level of talent, he still had to consider us even though our stable is full, and the stable at Texas was much more wide open.
Brown could have easily gone to a team where he will start at will, and may have done so at Texas. While the reality is, Richardson probably would have started on any other team he went to, I do hope that Brown still realizes that it's not going to be that way in the NFL and the special teams experience will help his next level success.
Nick Saban's program prepares kids well for the NFL as they come in and get special teams experience, end of game playing time, and eventually work their way into the starting lineup.
He is not willing to send the reputation of what he's doing a deathblow by starting Richardson over Ingram when Ingram is ready. Richardson will get his shot, and he knows it.
The team has done an excellent job showcasing Ingram and Richardson, and they won't take a step backward on that and demote Ingram due to injury.
Talent is a revolving door in Tuscaloosa, get in line, and wait your turn!
Read more Alabama Crimson Tide Football news on BleacherReport.com
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Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson give top-ranked Alabama one of the best running back tandems in the entire country. When one of them goes out, the other is more than capable of picking up the slack.
Ingram will miss the Crimson Tide's season opener against San Jose State after undergoing minor knee surgery Tuesday.
Ingram's injury opens the door for Richardson to stand alone in the spotlight for the first time. The sensational sophomore might just be the most talented member of the Tide's backfield, and he will get his chance to showcase his skills on a full-time basis Saturday.
Let's take a look at how the two talented 'Bama backs stand up against each other in a variety of categories.
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If you read my work at all, you know that come the middle of August, I'm a college football introvert.
Nothing else matters. I don't want to go on dates, go to the movies, or go to the beach. Baseball becomes a non-existent part of my life until October. I'd much rather spend August locked in my room, figuring out who the backup long snapper at New Mexico State is, and how a change at defensive coordinator at Middle Tennessee will impact the Sun Belt race. Don't judge me, that's just how I am.
Well this year has been no different. I feel like I've been writing about college football for six months now, yet somehow, the games haven't even started yet. I've broken down all these teams every way I know how to; the good and the bad, their strengths, weaknesses, whatever.
Simply put, I can rattle off Auburn's road schedule easier than I can my own family's birthdays, which is great for you the reader, but bad for my dad who has a birthday sometime this month.
So with that, here are my college football conference previews. They aren't my usual, long, rambling diatribes, if only because I feel like I've already talked about all these teams from every angle I can. But I do need to get my picks on paper, if only so you have something to make fun of me for at the end of the season.
Also, be sure to check back for the first of my award winning (Ok, maybe not), college football picks column, this coming Friday. Until then, I'll hold you over with a few of my selections for Thursday night, found at the end of this article.
Now onto, the conference preview picks.
(To read all of Aaron's college football writing, please click here, or visit him at www.aarontorres-sports.com)
ACC Atlantic: Florida State
I received a lot of heat for the comments I made on Bobby Bowden in my "Way Too Early, Top 25 Preview." But you know what? I stand by them. The guy's time has passed, I'm sorry but it's true. Bobby Bowden needs to worry about finding a fourth for his lunch time conasta game, not beating Urban Meyer and Randy Shannon.
Besides, Florida State is in good shape with Jimbo Fisher. This offense is going to score a lot of points, mainly because they did so last year, and bring basically everyone back. With an infusion of youth, this defense will be better too. And when I say youth, I'm not talking about all those hot-shot recruits, but Mark Stoops as the new coordinator. Like Bowden, Mickey Andrews's time had to come to move on. The guy thought his players were wearing leather helmets.
Give me Jimbo Fisher. And give me a Florida State Atlantic title.
ACC Coastal: Georgia Tech
I'm not a fan of calling teams, coaches, or players, "sexy picks," if only because I find the phrase really creepy.
Regardless, coming into this year, Miami seems to be everyone's "sexy" pick, with Virginia Tech being the safe one, and North Carolina the "Well, it might look crazy now, but if everything breaks right I'm going to look like a genius in December" pick. Good luck with that. Especially when the Tar Heels don't score a point against LSU this weekend.
Either way, give me Georgia Tech to win the Coastal and here's why: Everyone talks about the losses of four underclassmen to the NFL (including their leading rusher, leading receiver and one of the best sack guys in the country), but I don't care. They've still got Josh Nesbitt, and as long as he's there, it doesn't matter who plays running back or wide receiver, they're going to move the ball. Fill in the next guy, it doesn't matter. In this system, running backs and receivers are expendable parts. Games are won and lost by quarterback play.
As for the defense, I wasn't really sold, at least until I did an ACC Preview podcast with Michael Felder of InTheBleachers.net. As a former player, he told me what it was like to prepare for an Al Groh defense, and I promise you, it ain't pretty. Even if Groh set back the head coaching profession back by 15 years.
Finally, let's look at the schedule. Because as the kids say, I love it!
They avoid Florida State and Boston College out of the Atlantic, which is a big, big deal. They play North Carolina in Week 3, and honestly, it's anyone's guess as to who—if anyone—will be eligible to play for the Tar Heels at that point. Finally, they get a bye week before a big Thursday night trip to Virginia Tech (although Virginia Tech has a bye too), with that mid-week game giving them an extra few days to prepare for Miami the following Saturday.
ACC Champion: Georgia Tech
FSU's young defense is going to have seven days to prepare for Georgia Tech after playing Florida the week before? Umm, good luck with that.
Give me Tech in their second straight Orange Bowl.
Big 10: Iowa
Last week I explained why I didn't think Ohio State would win the Big 10, so now let me give you a few quick thoughts on why I think Iowa will.
Really it isn't one thing they're great at, as much that they're just good at everything. They've got experience at quarterback (although as I've said many, many times, Ricky Stanzi can be a bit erratic). They've got AMAZING depth at running back. Three guys could lead Iowa in rushing this year. And Adrian Clayborn is back to lead this defense. If you don't remember the name, just ask our buddy Josh Nesbitt about last year's Orange Bowl. He's still got Clayborn's cleat marks on his back.
Finally, there's the schedule. Historically, the Hawkeyes have owned Penn State and Wisconsin (then again, if history was our only barometer, I'd have Army playing Notre Dame in the BCS National Championship Game). And I really think after what happened against Ohio State last year, Iowa wants the Buckeyes. They get them at Kinnick Stadium in 2010. An early season trip to Arizona scares me a bit, but that has no impact on the race for the Big 10 title.Iowa may have just missed the Rose Bowl last year. I think they get there in 2010.
SEC East: Florida
Believe me, I'm not one of those guys that looks at last year's stats and records, and makes my picks for this season based on that (although I could see why you might think that way).
Still, I'm taking Florida, but it's not so much about the Gators as it is everyone else. Vandy's done, and the season hasn't started yet. I like Kentucky, but not enough to take this division. Tennessee barely has enough bodies to make up a flag football team let alone a real one. South Carolina, well, when it comes to them, fool me once shame on you, fool me five years in a row...
Which leaves us with Florida and Georgia. Truthfully, I've been talked into the Bulldogs to a degree this year. A lot of people have correctly pointed out that because of injuries the last couple years, they may have the deepest offensive line in college football this season. And we all know that if you've got a really good offensive line, it lets you get away with a lot of deficiencies in other places.
I do believe the defense at Georgia is going to be better, too. To me, it wasn't so much that they were under-skilled and overwhelmed last year, just that at some point they stopped listening to Willie Martinez. That won't happen this year with Todd Grantham.
With that, there are a few reasons I'm still taking Florida. One, Urban Meyer owns Mark Richt. NASA actually scientifically proved it this summer. At this point, Urban might as well just pay the mortgage on Richt's house.
More importantly though, it comes down to quarterback play. Both teams are inexperienced, yet only Georgia is young. John Brantley might not be the seasoned vet that Tim Tebow was, but with three years in this system, I trust him more than I do Aaron Murray.I still think the Gators are a 2-3 loss team this year. But I'll take them to make their third straight trip to Atlanta.
SEC West: Alabama
Like I said with Florida, I'm not dumb enough to think Alabama is going to be as good as they were last year, go undefeated, anything like that. They will lose at least one game during the regular season. Maybe to Florida. Or Arkansas. Or truthfully, I think it could be LSU. People forget how well the fightin' Les Miles' played the Tide last season.
But I don't think they're going to lose more than one game during the season, and I still think their closest competitors (Auburn/Arkansas/LSU) are going to lose at least two. By default, that puts them back in the SEC title game as West Champions.
SEC Champion: Alabama
I started out this column by talking about sexy picks, and we'll end it there, too. I know it's not fun to pick Alabama to win the SEC, but let's look at this realistically.
If they played Florida (my projection), they'd be heading to Atlanta with the more experienced QB, the two best running backs on the field, and the best wide receiver, too. The lines would be neutral since each is way more experienced on offense than defense. Alabama seems like they'd have the better linebacker core, with Florida the advantage in the secondary.
Simply put, there's just more good players with more experience for the Crimson Tide.
Really, the only thing that could actually work against Alabama is if they win when Florida comes to Tuscaloosa on October 2nd. I find it hard to see Urban Meyer letting anyone beat him three times in a row.
Still, give me the Tide. It isn't sexy, but it's smart.
(Because of length, this is just PART of Aaron's BCS Conference previews. To get his take on the Big XII, Pac-10 and Big East, click here or visit him at www.aarontorres-sports.com
Also, to stay in touch with Aaron, make sure to follow him on Twitter @Aaron_Torres, Facebook.com/AaronTorresSports or by downloading his APP for FREE for your iPhone or Android!)
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In humid Tuscaloosa, fans are readying their RVs, stockpiling meat of every taste and preference, and flying their flags of crimson proudly.
Unfortunately for the defending national champs, there is one red flag that could signal the dismissal of their star defensive end.
Earlier this summer, Marcell Dareus flew to south Florida and attended a party at which agents were present. The 280-pound defensive MVP denies coming into any direct contact with a sports agent and asserts his plane ticket was paid for by dually-investigated Marvin Austin of UNC.
With just a little under a week before the Crimson Tide kicks off their preseason No. 1 season, the NCAA, predictably, has yet to confirm any ruling on Dareus’ eligibility.
If Dareus is ruled ineligible for the 2010 season, it will be a hindrance to the young defensive line but won’t be a season-changer.
During the commencement of SEC play in 2009 season, Dont’a Hightower lined up against a Ryan Mallett-led Arkansas offense. After the snap, Mitch Petrus lowered his helmet at Hightower’s left knee, and Hightower fell to the turf.
However, to the silenced horror in Bryant-Denny Stadium, Hightower didn’t get up. Hightower’s knee had been completely shattered, tearing his ACL and meniscus. Fans in the stadium and at home watched morosely as trainers flexed Hightower’s ruined knee, only for it to resemble that of a Jell-O mold.
The 35-7 thrashing of Arkansas was deafened by a major blow to the Alabama D-line, and fans commenced writing online obituaries for what they thought was a championship season. The moment a somber Dont’a was driven to the locker room, Nick Saban was contemplating behind his vulnerable, weary eyes.
Nico Johnson, a true freshman linebacker from Andalusia, Alabama, stepped into Hightower’s rather large shoes. Johnson would later receive an All-SEC selection from Sporting News magazine, and Alabama would finish the season No. 2 in total defense.
Marcell Dareus is a superb talent—big, strong, surprisingly agile, and NFL-ready; moreover, it should come as a surprise that he started but four games last year. He is an important asset to the ‘Bama D, but not integral. There are plenty of defensive prospects that are starving for playing time and recognition.
One of those prospects could be highly-touted 2008 recruit Damien Square. Square is fresh off a knee injury and has the size and speed to light up quarterbacks all season long. Whether Dareus plays or not, fans can expect Square to play in some defensive scheme this season; he’s simply too good not to play.
Undra Billingsley is more likely to take the helm—Billingsley, an athlete who could play on both sides of the ball, shares much the same qualities of Dareus and will be a star once No. 57 inevitably departs for the NFL.
If Dareus’ claims are misleading, it’s justifiable that fans feel disappointed and frustrated, especially in lieu of Robby Green’s recent ineligibility ruling. However, it’s impractical to declare that the sky is falling and the season is lost because of one player. Marcell, in fact, may not have done anything wrong.
In 2009, the NCAA waited until mere days before the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game to give a ruling on an investigation involving Julio Jones and future Heisman winner Mark Ingram. The two, of course, participated in the opener, and the rest was history.
In the coming days, Alabama fans will be waiting with bated breath and readying their blogs. Tide fans will hope to breathe a sigh of relief; if so, the teams on Alabama’s schedule will no doubt breathe a sigh of dread.
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