What’s Next for Alabama?
September 30, 2008
st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } Given the heroic feats of Saturday's dismantling of the Dogs, what's next?
Will Alabama fans start murmuring and wringing their hands if they only beat Kentucky 24-21? Is it not enough just to win anymore? Will the fans expect the Tide to take EVERY team out for a first half woodshed thrashing?
Will the players begin to doubt themselves if they go into the locker room at halftime tied? How will they react if another team jumps out to a fast lead?
These are among the many questions that Nick Saban and staff must prepare for.
Too many times teams get caught up in their own headlines and rankings. Bama has seen this firsthand this season when Clemson and Georgia both got brought back down to earth.
The Tide players should know all too well just how easy and quickly it can be done. But it's a harder lesson to learn when you're on the dispensing side of the beating.
Right now all the players and coaches are saying the right things, and it's not like Alabama still doesn't have serious problems to deal with. These problems may help keep the Tide grounded as they coast through a few "easier" games.
Alabama doesn't have another mountain to climb until the LSU game several weeks from now, and then there's that darn streak that's been hanging over their heads for too long. This gives the team time to iron out the kinks.
Among them are:
1. Kick and Punt coverage
This problem area is a glaring thorn in their side and one that could have let Clemson or Georgia regain momentum. Right now coverage is just plain bad, and if it's not fixed, it could cost the Tide in a close game.
2. Consistency at QB
Will the REAL John Parker Wilson please stand up, and STAY standing, please? Good game, bad game, good game, bad game, and then good game last week against Georgia, where he was all but perfect.
If he turns in another sub-stellar effort this week, then it could be only a matter of time until the stars align and Wilson is playing a top team on a bad day.
3. Second half lapses
Saban is pulling his hair out trying to figure out why the team can't maintain the same level of play for 60 minutes. The coaches are making the players watch the entire third quarter of the Georgia game so they can see what went wrong, as well as the staff. If they can fix this, they may be unstoppable.
4. Pass rushing
Though the Tide has been successful at stopping offenses more or less, they still haven't found a way to use Cody to create gaps that the linebackers can exploit on a consistent basis. Kevin Steele wants to find a way to pressure the QBs even more. So far, it just hasn't been there.
One thing is for certain: Nick Saban won't be happy unless they win the National Championship game in a 63-0 shutout. Perfection is a hard thing to achieve, so don't expect to see Nick Saban smiling for a while.
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With a tumultuous week filled with upsets and nine ranked teams losing. Who now leads the national title race and who gets the BCS shovel?
1. Missouri Tigers Football
Due to the losses of USC and Florida, Missouri moves up to number one in my poll after a bye week. Chase Daniel is the best quarterback in the nation and great quarterback play is essential for national title.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide Football
Nick Saban has proven his worth by turning the Crimson Tide into a national title contender in only his second season. Alabama has had the most impressive set of wins of any team in the nation. First they blowout Clemson 34-10, and have a dominant 41-30 win over Georgia that includes a 31-0 halftime lead. Alabama is loaded with young talent and they will continue to get better as the season goes.
3. Oklahoma Sooners Football
Oklahoma passed his first major test with flying colors. Lead by 411 passing yards from Sam Bradford, the Sooners dominated a ranked TCU team and look like a potential BCS title team.
4. BYU Cougars Football
This may seem a little high for a Mountain West team, but BYU has been dominating its competition since escaping from Washington. Quarterback Max Hall has been putting up the best numbers in the nation and the Cougars defense has been able to keep up with their high power offense.
5. Penn State Nittany Lions Football
With Wisconsin losing to Michigan, Penn State looks like the best team in the Big Ten. They also won their first tough game against Illinois.
6. Texas Tech Red Raiders Football
Despite their great offense, Texas Tech still has an unproven defense. That side of the ball will determine whether the Red Raiders win anywhere between 8-12 games.
7. South Florida Bulls Football
Due to the Big East’s weakness, South Florida has a great shot to go undefeated and sneak into the title game. The Jayhawks’ success ultimately may determine how South Florida appears in the BCS title game.
8. LSU Tigers Football
Despite quarterback problems, LSU still has continued to win with top talent at every other position. Their upcoming trip to the swamp will determine whether this year’s Tigers can defend their title.
9. USC Trojans Football
USC shocking loss at Oregon State spells trouble for the Trojans, but they are not out of the national title hunt. With the nation’s best defense and their only road challenge being at Arizona, USC can easily run the table. Pete Carrol, however, needs to be able to keep his players motivated against inferior teams.
10. Texas Longhorns Football
Texas may be one of the most over ranked teams in the nation. They are unbeaten, but they have not played anyone of any merit either. The Big XII season will expose Texas’s suspect secondary and an interception prone Colt McCoy.
11. Georgia Bulldogs Football
Unlike the Trojans, Georgia and Florida are pretty much eliminated from national title contention. First they must play each other and a two loss team will most likely not make a title game. Also Georgia must play at Auburn and LSU and will probably lose at least one of those games.
12. Florida Gators Football
A loss at home one of the worst teams in the SEC (Ole Miss) has killed the Gator’s title hopes. However, they are still a top team with elite talent and that is why they hang on in the top 15.
13. Boise State Broncos Football
Can two non-BCS schools crash the BCS party. With the strength of the Mountain West and Boise finaly beating a BCS school on the road with their victor against Oregon, the Broncos schedule sets up for another Fiesta Bowl appearance. The Broncos only remaining challenge is a home game against Fresno State which has not won on the blue turf this millennium.
14. Utah Utes Football
The Holy War looks like a playoff for a BCS bowl (or even national title) berth. However, USC killing Oregon State is coming to Utah on Saturday which may be a challenge for the Utes.
15. Ohio State Buckeyes Football
Beanie Wells came back on Saturday to aid Ohio State’s victory against Minnesota. Terrel Pryor’s composure ultimately will determine Ohio State’s standing in the Big Ten.
16. Auburn Tigers Football
Auburn continues to look unimpressive after three lackluster games (3-2 over MSU, losing to LSU, and scraping by a 1-3 Tennessee team), while continuing to struggle on offense. Auburn is on its way to its first Iron Bowl loss since 2001.
17. Oregon Ducks Football
The Ducks are down to their third string quarterback but have still persevered to a 4-1 record this season. Watch out for the Ducks when Justin Roper returns from injury.
18. Wisconsin Badgers Football
A disappointing loss to a down Michigan team has cost Wisconsin a national title chance.
19. Fresno State Bulldogs Football
The Bulldogs tie Utah with the most BCS wins for a non-BCS team since 2000 with a win at UCLA. The Bulldogs should cruise through the WAC until a big game against Boise State at the blue turf.
20. Kansas Jayhawks Football
Kansas has performed as expected so far this season. The Big XII season will prove Kansas’ viability.
21. Vanderbilt Commodores Football
Vanderbilt also started 4-0 in 2005, but ended up finishing 5-6 and that season. However, this year’s Commodores seem to be more likely to make a bowl game due to having much better wins at this point (South Carolina, @ Ole Miss).
22. UConn Huskies Football
Uconn has not had any impressive wins, but similarly to last season’s Huskies, they find ways to win. With a soft Big East schedule, UConn can amass a win total that is much greater than their talent level.
23. Wake Forest Demon Deacons Football
Saturday’s loss at home to Navy has exposed Wake’s struggles with their running game with only 43 yards that game. Wake Forest is going to need to improve its running game for the rest of ACC play if they want to be an Orange Bowl contenders.
24. Virginia Tech Hokies Football
A win over Nebraska at Lincoln puts Virginia Tech back in the rankings. However, their loss against East Carolina continues to look worse
25. Ball State Cardinals Football
Since no other team outside the rankings deserves to be ranked, Ball State will cap out the top 25 due its impressive 5-0 start that includes wins over Navy and Indiana.
Member Commentary from Tideboy: Behind enemy lines (Ark)
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Who Asked the Coaches? USA Today Poll Snubs Alabama
September 29, 2008
With all the chaos in college football this weekend, voters inevitably faced some tough choices.
How much credit do you give to Oklahoma, a team that has looked great in rolling over a slate of weak opponents?
What do you make of LSU, who’s undefeated in the SEC but struggled to hold on in a closer-than-expected match-up with Mississippi State?
Picking between the schools at the top was no doubt difficult, and so it would be easy to cut the voters a bit of slack. Nevertheless, the coaches voting in the USA Today Poll still managed to make themselves look ridiculous.
Consider this absurdity:
1. Oklahoma
2. LSU
3. Missouri
4. Alabama
5. Texas
Are you kidding me? Missouri gets to sit at home and watch the Crimson Tide walk into Athens and take the No. 3-ranked Georgia Bulldogs behind the woodshed, and still wake up to find themselves atop the Tide?
Let's not forget, Missouri's signature win so far was a 10-point victory in a shootout with Illinois, a team that would later escape with a three-point victory against Louisiana-Lafayette.
Alabama, in the meantime, has blown out two Top 10 opponents, one on a neutral field in Atlanta, another between the hedges in Athens. It's almost inexplicable.
Almost. But remember who's doing the voting here. It's not hard to imagine why the seven voting coaches from the Big 12 would put Mizzou above the Tide; base self-interest would dictate wanting your future opponents ranked as high as possible.
On the other hand, it's hard to imagine Nick Saban's Tide getting much love from the rest of the SEC.
Sure, Georgia’s Mark Richt probably made up one of the Tide’s two No. 1 votes; it’s much easier to make the BCS case for a one-loss team if that loss came against the best team in the country.
But for teams no longer in contention, playing a highly-ranked 'Bama probably doesn't help much. Which leaves room for those coaches to stick it to the Tide for, ahem, “other reasons.”
(It would probably be wrong for me to mention at this point that Philip Fulmer, one of the SEC’s seven voting coaches this year, was served a summons upon arrival at the SEC Media Days in Birmingham. He’s being sued in connection with his testimony against Alabama to the NCAA.)
Even ignoring the general malice between Alabama and several of their closest neighbors, or the vitriol that has been directed at Saban since he came to Tuscaloosa, it’s not hard to imagine that a No. 1 or No. 2 ranking could convince a few recruits to jump on the ‘Bama bandwagon early.
Out of the seven voting coaches in the SEC, only one (South Carolina’s Steve Spurrier) rarely competes directly with Alabama for recruits. The rest of the bunch (Sylvester Croom at Mississippi State, Phillip Fulmer at Tennessee, Les Miles at LSU, Mark Richt at Georgia, Tommy Tuberville at Auburn and Urban Meyer at Florida) are in the same high schools as Nick Saban on the recruiting trail.
Is it ridiculous to think that perhaps some coaches dinged the Tide in an attempt to slow down the Saban recruiting juggernaut?
With Alabama’s recruiting base becoming more and more national, this could hurt the Tide outside the SEC as well.
As an example, Alabama’s highly-touted freshman RB Mark Ingram was plucked out of Michigan, a state where Alabama has never been able to recruit before Saban was hired.
Is it inconceivable that Michigan’s Rich Rodriguez and Michigan State’s Mark Dantonio (both voting coaches this year) may have had this in mind when they filled out their polls?
Sure, all of this is speculation, but it points to one of the many problems with the BCS. How credible can a system be when it bases a large chunk of its final rankings on a poll filled out by hardly-disinterested parties?
Who knows what the coaches have in mind when they fill out their polls? It’s not like they have the time to watch all the games.
What is absolutely clear is that the USA Poll hardly seeks to avoid the appearance of impropriety. Basic common sense should tell us that the most untrustworthy opinions come from those with a dog in the fight.
Tags: alabama crimson tide newsThe Lake Woebegone Conference: What If Alabama Is Just Above Average?
September 29, 2008
With the last two conference champions going on to win the national title, and projections of a legendary "speed" advantage that will continue to pay dividends to conference members for generations to come, the conventional wisdom has at least one SEC team playing for a crystal trophy in January.
But just as the nation's financial markets are working their way through turbulence caused by overvalued real estate, there are reasons to wonder whether the football properties in the SEC are experiencing a serious asset bubble of their own.
Not even halfway through the season, eight of the 12 SEC teams have already made an appearance in the Associated Press' top 25. Only Mississippi, Mississippi St., Arkansas, and Kentucky have yet to be ranked.
The pollsters' irrational exuberance has already led both Tennessee and South Carolina to default on their top 25 mortgages. The Vols (now 1-3) got dumped in week one by UCLA (now also 1-3.) South Carolina's brief appearance in the poll came to a crashing halt when it ran into the Pit Yorkies of Vanderbilt.
And that was just the first two weeks of the season. On the momentum of beating South Carolina, Vandy has inched its way up to No. 21 in the present poll. With their last winning season coming shortly after President Reagan's first, the question of foreclosure on the Pit Yorkies is probably a matter of "when" rather than "if."
But no matter, the pollsters have more easy credit to lend. Kentucky is still unbeaten and knocking on the door. Ole Miss, at 3-2, has a fresh Gator hide hanging on the wall. In a conference where fortunes are made and lost in an eyeblink, they're both just one upset away from the spotlight.
If they pull it off, that would make them the ninth and 10th SEC teams to crack the top 25 this season.
Yet prices at the top of this market are soft. Last week, three of the top five teams were from the SEC. The two highest—No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Florida—were severely exposed as something well short of championship-ready teams. No. 5 LSU even had some headaches in the first half against Mississippi State.
Defenders of SEC supremacy will doubtless suggest that this just proves how tough the conference really is. But Tennessee's collapse against UCLA isn't the only evidence of trouble in non-conference games.
Before beating No. 4 Florida, Ole Miss lost to Wake Forest, which lost to Navy.
Alabama, now the No. 2 team in the nation, allowed four sacks, put up just 172 yards and scored only a single offensive touchdown against Tulane during week two—a game 'Bama won 20-6. Alabama's defense, now considered world beaters, gave up 318 yards to the Tulane offense that day.
That's Alabama playing a Conference USA team that hasn't had a winning season since 2002 and who gave hapless Army one of its few wins last year.
Substitute No. 6 Penn State for No. 2 Alabama in the above paragraph, and just wait for the howls of "overrated" to bellow up from Dixie.
And what of Alabama?
Nick Saban is a terrific coach. It does not surprise me that he has Alabama looking again like a consistent winner after just two seasons. In his only other college coaching stops, he had the Michigan State and LSU ships sailing off in good directions after just a couple of seasons as well.
But ask yourself one question: Should it be happening this fast?
If Alabama really is already the second-best team in the nation and the best team in the SEC, then this shreds the argument for SEC superiority.
If one man—even one of the nation's very best coaches—can assume control of a dysfunctional (though storied) program and then smash the best that the conference has to offer after less than two years on the job, then the biggest part of this story is being missed.
The last two national champions are from the SEC. The coaches of Florida, LSU, Auburn, and South Carolina have all won national championships and/or had perfect seasons.
Saban took over a 6-7 team and has had just two recruiting classes, presumably not enough time to fill up his team with the southern talent that his conference rivals have been stockpiling for years.
And yet, here we are. Alabama has wiped the floor with Georgia, the "conventional wisdom" pick to win the conference title. Even plucky little Tulane did a better job of holding back the Tide.
So what gives?
I think the championship credit of the SEC is drying up, at least for this season. Alabama's on its way to being one of the best teams, but it isn't there yet. The shocking early success of the Crimson Tide shows that the conference is declining as much as it shows that 'Bama is on the rise.
If I'm right, then Georgia probably isn't as bad as it looked against 'Bama, the Ole Miss win over Florida may not be a fluke, Vandy probably has enough wins left in them to go bowling, and even South Carolina and Tennessee have "upsets" left to put on the board.
Florida State was 7-4 in 2005 when it upset Virginia Tech in the ACC title game and went to the Orange Bowl. Pitt won the Big East title with an 8-3 record the year before. Weird parity has infected nearly every BCS conference since then, causing the ascendance of Rutgers, Missouri, Wake Forest, Kansas, and Illinois to the top of the polls.
The SEC is overdue for such a crash, and the quick rise of Alabama may be the signal that the meltdown is upon us.
If so, then the rest of the season will be a "War of All Against All," where perhaps eight of the 12 conference teams stay in contention for the title nearly all season long, but at the cost of three or more losses on the balance sheets of all involved.
In the conference where every team is above average, the quest for a third straight BCS title appearance may be in ruins by early November.
